Time to sell or buy DeFi tokens? š¤
Revisiting our 6 DeFi investments š°
August 31, 2024

GM! Welcome to Milk Road PRO ā the newsletter that never drops its support (unlike your portfolio).
Itās been four months since we launched the Milk Road Portfolio, and now is the perfect time toĀ reassess our positionsĀ and see if our investment thesisĀ still holds strong.
Today, weāre zeroing in on our DeFi positions, which account for 6 of our 11 holdings and representĀ 12.5% of our portfolio.
(Want to get the full picture?Ā Click here to view our complete portfolio!)
Weāre going to break down ourĀ investment thesis, protocol progressĀ andĀ price predictionsĀ for each of our DeFi positions in just a second, but first, letās reflect on the sectorās overall performance in the last few months.Ā
We launched our Milk Road PRO portfolio on May 1st, 2024, and since then, the entire market has faced aĀ downward trend.Ā
Naturally, this means all our DeFi positions are currentlyĀ in the red too.Ā š»Ā
[
Source: TradingView
The total crypto market cap is down just 1%, largely due toĀ Bitcoin'sĀ strong performance. However,Ā $ETHĀ hasĀ dropped by 11%, and the DeFi sector isĀ down 14%.Ā
But, does this mean that DeFi is failing?Ā We donāt think so.
We think the sector is still evolving, and the downturn could simply be a temporary phase in aĀ broader growth trajectory.Ā
Many DeFi projects are continuing to innovate and expand, laying the groundwork forĀ future success.Ā šŖ
In fact, some DeFi projects are experiencingĀ significant revenue growthĀ even as their valuations continue to drop.
[
Source: @RyanWatkins_
We can see that the annualized revenue of these four selected DeFi OGs is at all-time highs (ATHs), which has driven their valuations toĀ historically low levels, with a price-to-revenue ratio of 24.Ā
(To put this in perspective, the S&P 500 currently sits at a price-to-earnings ratio ofĀ around 32).Ā
This disconnect suggests that while market sentiment may be bearish, the underlying fundamentals of these projects areĀ strong and improvingĀ over time.Ā ā°
So, how long until DeFiĀ finally takes off?Ā
We've already seen some early signs with $AAVE experiencing explosive growth, leading some to call this the beginning of aĀ "DeFi renaissance."Ā
But is DeFi really gaining more attention, or is this anĀ isolated incident?Ā
Letās take a look at the chart ofĀ DeFi mindshare, which shows how much people are talking about DeFi on Twitter.
[
Source: @_kaitoai
Just three months ago, onlyĀ 7% of Crypto TwitterĀ was discussing DeFi. Now that mindshare has nearlyĀ doubled to 13%.Ā š
This shift could signal aĀ turning pointĀ for the sector.
As DeFi starts to regain attention, we need to ensure that our portfolio is packed with strong projects boasting solid fundamentalsāprojects that areĀ poised to thriveĀ in this potential trend.
If any of our current holdings donāt measure up, it might be time to consider cutting them loose.Ā
Let's dive into our 5 DeFi positions toĀ assess recent developmentsĀ and whether they reinforce our bullish outlook.Ā š¦
PS: We won't be covering Aave in todayās report since our focus is on revisiting our existing positions. $AAVE wasĀ added to our portfolio only recently, so there's no need to reassess it at this time.
Hereās the agenda for each of our positions in todayās report:
-
KPIs: A quick snapshot of key performance metrics.
-
Recent developments: An overview of the latest strategic moves, new integrations, and any game-changing announcements.
-
Price movements: An analysis of recent price trends and how these projects are navigating the volatile market.
-
Conclusions: Insights on whether our investment theses for that position remains strong.
Sound like something you want to learn more about? Great!Ā Let's jump into it.Ā š
MAKER ($MKR)Ā š
Maker (now transitioning to āSkyā) is a DeFi pioneer and the issuer of the decentralized stablecoin $DAI (now transitioning to $USDS) ā but weāll continue to refer to them as Maker ($MKR) and Dai ($DAI) in this report,Ā given itās a recent change.

Maker is ourĀ largest position outside of the majors, with 3.4% of our portfolio invested in $MKR at an average entry price of $2,721. Currently, the price has dropped to $1,768, resulting in an open PnL of -35%.
Despite this decline, $MKR remains theĀ third-best performing DeFi assetĀ in our portfolio.Ā
TheĀ key metricĀ for Maker is the amount of their stablecoin $DAI in circulation.
Let's take a look at that chart. š
[
Source: MakerBurn
The $DAI supply bottomed in March, peaked in May, and hasĀ remained steady since.
While $DAI supply growth isn't the immediate focus, thereās a lot happening within the Maker ecosystem.Ā
Letās dive into what Maker is developing and assess whether our thesis still holds.
š¢Ā The Tokenization Grand PrixĀ has launched, aiming to bringĀ $1 billionĀ in real-world assets onto the Maker platform.Ā
Open to innovators, this competition focuses on integrating traditional assets into decentralized finance, potentiallyĀ expanding Makerās reach and influenceĀ in the financial world.
š¢Ā Maker is kicking off its long-term roadmap calledĀ EndgameĀ withĀ a rebrandĀ to āSkyā, which includes new names for its stablecoin and governance token.Ā
These tokens will eventually be accompanied with aĀ new mobile app, where users will have the option to upgrade their $DAI and $MKR to the newly named tokens, "$USDS" and "$SKY," and access a key feature:Ā yield farming.Ā
This marks the beginning of significant updates for Maker, aiming toĀ enhance its ecosystemĀ and user engagement.
š¢Ā Holders of $MKR or $SKY will haveĀ newĀ yield farming opportunities. They can lock (seal) their tokens to receive $USDS.Ā
With the launch of theĀ Spark SubDAO, holders will also have the option to receive $SPK tokens.
-
$USDS Rewards:Ā 25% of all protocol stablecoin surplus earned by the Maker Protocol will be distributed proportionally as Activation Rewards to Sealed $MKR and $SKY holders who choose to receive $USDS.
-
$SPK Rewards:Ā 15% of all $SPK tokens allocated for Token Rewards will be distributed proportionally as Activation Rewards to Sealed Activation users who opt for $SPK yield.
-
It isĀ not availableĀ to US residents and VPN users.
š¢Ā NewBridge (called Skylink) is next. Skylink will serve as a bridgeĀ connecting Maker to major Layer 2 networks, expanding its reach and interoperability across the ecosystem.Ā
š¢Ā $SKY will be aĀ redenominatedĀ version of $MKR with a significantly larger supply. Users can obtain it by upgrading their $MKR at a 1:24000 ratio.Ā
This new token will provide token-gated access to governance AI tools andĀ offer rewardsĀ for participating in governance activities.
š¢Ā The launch of Makerās first subDAO, Sparkāa year-old lending protocol inspired by Aave and launched by Phoenix Labsāmarks aĀ significant step forward.Ā
SubDAOs are designed to address one of Maker's persistent challenges:Ā its cumbersome bureaucracy.Ā
By delegating the management of specific features to subgroups, Maker aims to reduce the workload on its volunteers, helping toĀ prevent burnout, according to Maker founder Rune Christensen.
š“Ā It's important to recognize that this is all an experiment.Ā
While the ideas might sound promising in theory, there'sĀ no guaranteeĀ they will work in practice.Ā
The introduction of numerous new contracts, consideration of new governance structures, and the involvement of AI all presentĀ significant uncertaintiesĀ and challenges that could impact the success of these initiatives.
šĀ $MKR experienced aĀ strong uptrendĀ in 2023 and early Q1 2024. However, since then, it has been trendingĀ downward within a channel.Ā
[
Source: TradingView
Our target for $MKR is in the $18,000-$20,000 range, which would imply a fully diluted valuation (FDV) ofĀ $20 billion.
See our previous reports covering Maker:
š„Ā PRO | Maker: The First Onchain App to Explode?
š„Ā PRO | 3 reasons why Stablecoins are going to explode!
š„Ā PRO | DeFi will hit $700B market cap by EOY 2025
Our conclusion:Ā Maker is at a critical inflection point, with all eyes on the full execution of the long-awaited Endgame plan.
The success of thisĀ massive update, and how well users embrace its benefits,Ā will be pivotal.Ā
If executed well, Maker's potential is enormous.
It could evolve into the coordination engine of decentralized finance, establishing a platform that others will build and develop uponāa position thatĀ won't be easily replicated.Ā
We can envision a future where large companies and funds join Maker as subDAOs, further amplifying its importance andĀ cementing its crucial roleĀ in the DeFi ecosystem.
ā Ā Weāre enthusiastic about Maker's ambitious plan and will closely monitor its execution. If the Endgame plan succeeds, Maker could emerge as theĀ central bank of the decentralized world!
LIDO ($LDO)Ā š§
Lido is the leading liquid staking platform on Ethereum.
We currently have 1.8% of our portfolio invested in $LDO, with an average purchase price of $1.95. The current price is $1.08,Ā resulting in an open PnL of -44%.
We want to revisit whatās happened and see if our thesis still holds strong.
Let's start with a look at Lido's market share chart, which shows a slight decline in Q1 2024.
[
Source: Dune
Currently, Lido holds aĀ 28.8% market share, which appears to have stabilized at this level since April of this year. Recent developments might be a factor in this stabilization, so letās dive into the key updates from Lido.
š¢Ā Lido is introducing 'Restaking Vaults' in collaboration with Symbiotic and Mellow Finance.Ā
This new initiative will allow users to generate yield by depositing intoĀ restaking vaultsĀ on Mellow Finance, while Symbiotic, a permissionlessĀ restaking protocol, will provide the infrastructure.Ā
This effort aims to bring Lidoās stETHĀ back to the forefrontĀ by offering traders enhanced restaking tools.
š“Ā TheĀ SECās attemptĀ to designate Lidoās stETH as a crypto asset security posesĀ unresolved risksĀ for unregistered staking services, but this event likely created a local capitulation bottom and leaves little room forĀ unexpected dangersĀ to derail $LDO until the pending litigation is decided in multiple years' time.
š¢Ā Lido hasĀ launchedĀ a dedicated v3 Aave deployment for its stETH and wstETH tokens.Ā
This new setup offers isolated markets and aĀ higher borrowing cap of 90%, up from 78.5% in the regular v3 market for stETH.Ā
Itās designed specifically for Lidoās liquid $ETH, giving usersĀ more borrowing powerĀ and minimizing risks, since only Lidoās products are used in this dedicated platform.
š¢Ā Lido is launchingĀ Lido Institutional, aĀ premium serviceĀ designed for large clients like crypto funds and asset managers with $ETH.Ā
It addresses AML and KYC compliance, allowing clients to stake and mint new stETHĀ without any transaction history.Ā
This strategic move also offers a potential solution to the recently launched Ether ETFs, which lack a staking component.
With Lido Institutional, clients canĀ capture the full 3-4% yieldĀ from Ethereum Beacon Chain rewards, making it a more competitive option.
š¢Ā Lido hasĀ approvedĀ bridging their liquid $ETH to the $BNB chain, marking the first time Lido has connected to a Layer 1 blockchain outside the Ethereum ecosystem.Ā
This expansion opens upĀ $23 billion in total value lockedĀ to interact with a new chain that boasts over 1 million daily active users.Ā
This move could significantly increase Lido's reach and drive further growth.
šĀ The price action has been trending downward, reaching lows not seen since late 2023.
[
Source: TradingView
However, ourĀ target remains at $8, which represents nearly an 8x potential from these levels.
At that point, Lido would be valued at around $10 billion FDV, which is a very reasonable valuation considering itsĀ TVLĀ sits above $30 billion.
Learn moreĀ about Lido in our previous reports:
š„Ā PRO | 3 ways to determine a token's fair price
š„Ā PRO | DeFi will hit $700B market cap by EOY 2025
š„Ā PRO | 4 ways to capitalize on the restaking narrative
Our conclusion:Ā Prices may be down, but we believe Lido has made significant strides in stabilizing its market share andĀ preventing further lossĀ to competitors.Ā
They've found a way to tap into restaking while maintaining their focus solely on Ethereum staking, remaining fully aligned with the Ethereum Foundation.Ā
We anticipate that the SEC charges will eventually be dropped.Ā
With the U.S. potentially becoming more pro-crypto and the possibility for new leadership to replace the old SEC officials, it could meanĀ minimal impactĀ on Lido's business moving forward.
We also want to emphasize that Lido operates a relativelyĀ straightforward business model, with fewer risks associated with its future.
Unlike other projects that require extensive ongoing development, Lido has alreadyĀ established its core infrastructure.
However, it's important to note that Lido's future is closely tied to the success of Ethereum.Ā
Unlike other projects that can easily expand to different blockchains like Solana, Ton or Sui, Lido isĀ heavily dependentĀ on Ethereumās ecosystem.Ā
In fact, Lido previously attempted to operate on Solana but eventuallyĀ had to shut downĀ its operations there.Ā ā
This reliance on Ethereum means that while Lido's business model is straightforward, its growth potential isĀ largely contingentĀ on Ethereum's continued dominance and stability in the blockchain space.
Weāre optimistic about their expansion to other L2 chains, assuming risks are managed well, and the dedicated market on Aave adds more value to Lido's users.Ā
These developments, along with the introduction of Lido Institutional, could strengthen Lido's user base and potentiallyĀ boost market shareĀ once again.
ā Ā Our thesis remains valid and we believe thatĀ our base target of $8 is doable.
JUPITER ($JUP) š
Jupiter is a decentralized exchange aggregator on Solana, featuring an in-house perpetual exchange for trading derivatives, alongside $jupSOL, a simple way toĀ earn staking yield on Solana.Ā
But beyond just providing staking rewards, $jupSOLĀ plays a strategic role: the more staked SOL Jupiter controls, the more access they have to block space on Solana, giving them aĀ significant competitive advantageĀ within the ecosystem.
We currently hold 2.1% of our portfolio in $JUP, with an average purchase price of $0.95.
Although the current price has dipped to $0.80, resulting in a -16% loss, $JUP is stillĀ our best-performing DeFi position to date.
Let's begin by examining the chart that shows the market share of trade sources across Solana DEXs.Ā š
[
Source: Dune
Weāve observed aĀ significant dropĀ in DEX market share, from 81% in February to the current 53%.Ā
To understand why, it's important to note that Raydium and Pumpdotfun have increased their market share,Ā now holding a combined 36%.Ā
These platforms are heavily focused on memecoins, suggesting that Jupiterās declining market share is largely due to theĀ surge in memecoin trading, which is happening on these specialized platforms rather than on Jupiter.
To confirm this hypothesis, let's examine the number of active users (traders) on Jupiter.
[
Source: Dune
Fortunately, we don't see anyĀ significant dropĀ in the number of active users on Jupiter, which would have been a much more alarming sign.
Great! Now, let's examine the most recent developments that might not yet be reflected in the numbers but couldĀ have an impact on the protocol.Ā
š¢Ā The Jupiter community hasĀ votedĀ to reduce the $JUP token supply by 30%, cutting itĀ from 10 billion to 7 billion.Ā This move is designed to combat $JUP inflation and is expected to positively impact the tokenās price.Ā
Additionally, Jupiter doesnāt have any external investors, and the team has committed to locking their tokens for another two years, meaning there areĀ no upcoming unlocks.Ā
The only upcoming event is an airdrop to active users scheduled for January.Ā
This strategic reduction in supply, combined with the team's long-term commitment, positions $JUP forĀ potential price growth.
š¢Ā Jupiter has announced the launch of a new memecoin trading platform called Ape.Ā
Currently in its Alpha stage, Ape offers users a secure wallet vault for easy trading by simply depositingĀ $SOL.Ā
Key features include token discovery and dynamic slippage settings. The platform is also offering aĀ promotional trading fee of just 0.069%.
š¢Ā Over 2.5 million $SOL have been staked through $jupSOL, representing 10% of the market share. This gives Jupiter a significant advantage, increasing the likelihood of successful transactions for its users.
š¢Ā Jupiter has acquiredĀ Ultimate WalletĀ (a self-custody crypto wallet, supporting $SOL, $ETH, andĀ $BTC) and its mobile team, a strategic move toĀ accelerate user growthĀ through mobile platforms.Ā
This acquisition supports Jupiterās mission to expand its product lineup, including the introduction of a native mobile wallet, bringing us one step closer toĀ onboarding millions of new users.
š¢Ā Jupiter Exchange has launched theĀ Giant Unified Market (GUM)Ā initiative on the Solana blockchain, designed to create a single,Ā seamless marketĀ for global investors.Ā
The GUM aims to integrate diverse investmentsāranging from memecoins and real-world assets to stocks and forexāintoĀ one unified marketĀ on Solana.
šĀ We have seen price going sideways since highs from march this year. The price ranges from 0.7$-1.2$.Ā
[
Source: TradingView
Our target isĀ set at around $6, which would value Jupiter at aĀ $40 billion FDV.
See our previous reportsĀ covering Jupiter:
š„Ā PRO | The Rise of Liquid Staking on Solana
Our conclusion: Jupiter stands out as our only DeFi play that leans more towards narrative than fundamental strategy.Ā
While it initially gained traction as the go-to platform on Solana, it hasĀ lost some momentumĀ as other platforms pivot to capitalize on the growing memecoin trend.
Instead of following this path, Jupiter is focused on building aĀ comprehensive trading platform, including a mobile app, designed to cater to a diverse range of investorsācovering crypto, stocks, forex, real estate, and more.Ā
Additionally, Jupiter benefits fromĀ priority access to 10% of block space on SolanaĀ through their $jupSOL share, further strengthening their position.
WeāreĀ still uncertainĀ about Jupiterās business strategy and how they plan to monetize in the long run though.Ā
And justifying our projected $40 billion FDV for Jupiter on fundamentals aloneĀ might be challenging.Ā
However, its position as the go-to app with over 700K weekly active users, combined with its access to 10% of Solana's blockspace, provides strong support for this valuation.Ā
These factors underscore Jupiter's significant potential for future success, positioning it as a key player in the DeFi space with aĀ solid foundation for growth.
If Solana emerges as the winner of this cycle, itās wise for us as investors to have exposure to the most used DeFi app on that blockchain.Ā
With its user base set to grow dramatically over the next few months, JupiterĀ stands to benefitĀ immenselyĀ from Solanaās success.Ā
(Remember: in the world of crypto,Ā users are the biggest moat).Ā šÆ
ā Ā WeĀ remain confidentĀ that Jupiter will perform well (potentially reaching $6), especially if Solana gains momentum again.Ā
JITO ($JTO) āļø
Jito is aĀ liquid restaking protocolĀ andĀ a key projectĀ on the Solana blockchain. Through $jitoSOL, users can access staking yields while maintaining liquidity with their tokens.
We hold 1.7% of our portfolio in $JTO, with an average purchase price of $3.10. Currently, the price stands at $2.20. This position isĀ at anĀ open loss of 25%.Ā
Jito is the clear leader in liquid staking on Solana and its market share (orange)Ā continues to grow.
[
Source: Dune
Jito had a very strong performance in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, expanding their market shareĀ from just 8% toĀ a remarkable 49%.Ā
We believe that liquid staking on Solana still holds enormous potential, and Jito is well-positioned to captureĀ a significant shareĀ of this growing market.
Let's delve into Jito and explore what theyāve been up to recently.
š¢Ā Jito has announced a newĀ restakingĀ feature that allows users to deposit their liquid staked $SOL into vaults, which will be used to verify activities beyond just Solana consensus.Ā
Itās exciting that the Solana community will now have access toĀ additional yield opportunities, while developers have the ability to leverage these restaking solutions to outsource some of their activities, streamlining operations and focusing on innovation rather than infrastructure.Ā
This development couldĀ significantly enhanceĀ the ecosystem's flexibility and growth potential.
š¢Ā Jito has officially launchedĀ StakeNet, a permissionless onchain protocol designed to collect and analyze all relevant data about Solana validators.Ā
Using this data, StakeNet automatically manages stake pools, optimizing the staking process and ensuring efficient delegation based on real-time performance metrics.
š¢Ā Ethena has announced that $jitoSOL will be considered in theĀ governanceĀ decision to onboard $SOL as a backing asset for $USDe.Ā
This inclusion reflects theĀ increasing relevanceĀ of $jitoSOL in the Solana ecosystem and its potential role in supporting Ethena's decentralized stablecoin ($USDe).Ā
This decision could create aĀ strong demand driverĀ for $jitoSOL.
š“Ā Token unlocks will begin on December 4, 2024 and will continue over the next three years for core contributors and investors, accounting forĀ 40% of the total supply.Ā
This significant unlock period could introduce additional supply to the market,Ā potentially affectingĀ the tokenās price.
š“Ā Firedancer, the open-source client developed by Jump, is expected to launch in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025.
This new client is anticipated to offerĀ significantly higher performanceĀ compared to the current Solana client.Ā
While it's unclear how Firedancer's introduction will impact Jito and its market share, we expect that Jito will likely adopt the Firedancer client as well.Ā
This would allow Jito toĀ diversify its operational risksĀ and maintain its competitive edge within the Solana ecosystem.
šĀ Similar to other positions, $JTO's price has been on a decline since reaching its all-time high in March.
Although there was a slight upward correction a few weeks ago, the overall trend continues toĀ move to the downside.
[
Source: TradingView
Our target for $JTO is around $21, which would result in a fully diluted valuation (FDV) ofĀ $20 billion.
See our previous reportsĀ covering Jito:
š„Ā PRO | The Rise of Liquid Staking on Solana
š„Ā PRO | 4 ways to capitalize on the restaking narrative
Our Conclusion: We like Jito because it integrates multiple business avenues, including staking, restaking, and MEV (Maximum Extractable Value).Ā
It's often seen as a combination of Lido, EigenLayer, and Flashbots, all in one project.
Staking and MEV are alreadyĀ significant business opportunities, and while restaking is still emerging, we believe it will become a significant opportunity too as demand for these solutions grows.Ā
Because Jito is effectively tackling three different areas of business, and holds aĀ 50% market shareĀ in liquid stakingĀ (which grants them priority access to half of Solana's blockspace), we believe theseĀ strengths will outweigh the selling pressureĀ from upcoming token unlocks.Ā
The teamāsĀ consistent performance and strategic advantagesĀ should help the price remain resilient and potentially continue to rise despite the increased supply.
Overall, Jito is a young and rapidly growing project with a low circulating supply, but its development on the popular Solana blockchain couldĀ add a premiumĀ to its value.
ā Ā Jito continues to expand into various verticals, diversifying its business model, and weĀ remain optimisticĀ about its future.
ETHENA ($ENA)Ā š¹
Ethena generates yield through a delta-neutral strategy and offers access to that yield via their synthetic stablecoin.

Ethena is currently our smallest DeFi position, representing 0.65% of our portfolio. Our average entry price is $0.80, while the current price has dropped to $0.24, resulting inĀ an open loss of -70%.
The north star for Ethena is the supply of their stablecoin $USDe.Ā
[
Source: Ethena
The current $USDe supply stands at 3.06 billion, which is slightly lower than it was two months ago but stillĀ significantly higherĀ than when the market peaked in March.Ā
This indicates that despite the market downturn, theĀ supply remains robust, which is a positive sign. It suggests continued confidence and demand for $USDe even in a challenging market environment.
Let's examine Ethena's recent developments.
š¢Ā The protocol recently outlinedĀ plansĀ to allocate a portion of itsĀ $235 million $USDT holdingsāapproximately 7% of its collateral assetsāalong with its $45 million surplus buffer, known as the Reserve Fund, to real-world asset (RWA) products in order to earn a yield.Ā
This strategic move aims toĀ diversify the protocolās investmentsĀ and enhance returns by tapping into the growing RWA market.
š¢Ā $USDe is now available on Solana, which is likely to drive more users and increase demand for Ethena's products. This is especially significant because Solana currently lacks a decentralized stablecoin with yield, making $USDe aĀ highly attractive optionĀ for the community.
š¢Ā Ethena has launched $ENAĀ restaking, an important step in integrating $ENA into its broader financial infrastructure.Ā
Restaking will help secure cross-chain transfers on the upcoming Ethena Chain, using LayerZeroās DVN network for verification.Ā
ThisĀ development isĀ crucialĀ because it not only enhances the security of these transfers but also solidifies $ENA's role as a key asset within Ethena's growing ecosystem.
š¢Ā Ethena has introduced $USDe as reward-bearing stable marginĀ collateralĀ on Bybit.Ā
Starting August 2nd, all Bybit users canĀ earnĀ up to 20% APR, paid daily, simply by holding $USDe or using it as collateral for trading derivatives in their Bybit accounts.Ā
This initiative not only incentivizes holding $USDe but also enhances its utility within the trading ecosystem, offering users a compelling way to earn rewards while managing their trades.
š“Ā The low float, high FDV narrative definitely applies here. Currently, only 12% of $ENA is in circulation.Ā
However, on April 2, 2025, there will beĀ a significant unlock of 1.13 billion tokensĀ (11.3% of total supply) for core contributors and investors, effectively doubling the circulating supply.Ā
Additionally, there will be monthly unlocks ofĀ 2% for the next three yearsĀ following this date.Ā
These unlocks could introduceĀ substantial selling pressure, so it's important to consider how this might impact the token's price in the long term.Ā
šĀ $ENA has been in a downtrend since its launch in April, recently hitting its all-time low (ATL).Ā
[
Source: TradingView
Our target for $ENA is around $3, which would result in a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $45 billion.Ā
Read other reportsĀ covering Ethena:
š„Ā PRO | Ethena: pioneering innovation or just hype?
š„Ā PRO | 3 reasons why Stablecoins are going to explode!
In our previous PRO Report, we projected that Ethena could reach $5.
However, given the recent trend where low float, high FDV projects are viewed negatively,Ā weāve adjusted our targetĀ to $3Ā to avoid reaching an overly inflated FDV.Ā
This revised target aligns more realistically with market conditions whileĀ still reflecting our confidenceĀ in Ethena's growth potential.
Our conclusion:Ā Ethena is developing a robust product that continues to deepen its network effects through various integrations and expansion to other blockchains.Ā
While the initial hype around Ethena has subsided, all signs indicate thatĀ the project isĀ here to stay, steadily building a unique position in the market.Ā
Ethena aims to create theĀ mostĀ scalable and high-performingĀ strategyĀ in the industry, setting the stage for future growth.
It's also important to note thatĀ Ethenaās product is essentially complete, which sets it apart from projects like Maker or Jupiter, where there are still uncertainties around future business strategies and successful execution.Ā
With fewer question marks, Ethena can fully concentrate on growth and scaling its operations to potentially become the leading decentralized stablecoin.Ā
This solid foundation allows Ethena toĀ focus on expandingĀ its market presence without the distractions of ongoing development or strategic shifts.
Despite a low token float, upcoming unlocks may slow price growth in the short term.
However, we believe Ethena remains a strong project with the potential to significantly impact the industry, as manyĀ other projects are likely to use their strategy.Ā
That said, weāre keeping the significant token unlock on April 2, 2025, in mind.Ā š§ Ā
If we find a strong selling opportunity before then,Ā we wouldnāt hesitate to take profitsĀ and potentially buy back later at a more favorable price.Ā
ā Ā Ethena is poised to benefit greatly from its first-mover advantage and the network effects itās building. We remain confident in Ethenaās business and believe $ENA isĀ well-positioned for success.
That wraps up our updated view on each of our existing positions. Now, let's bring it all together and summarize the key takeaways.
FINAL THOUGHTSĀ š
Overall, weĀ remain confidentĀ that DeFi projects will deliverĀ strong performanceĀ this cycle.Ā
To put things in perspective, Uniswap, one of the top DeFi projects from the previous cycle, was valued at around $40 billion FDV at its peak in 2021.
In this cycle, we see the potential for certain DeFi projects to achieve similar, if not greater valuations, driven by eitherĀ compelling narrativesĀ orĀ strong financial fundamentals.Ā
For example, Jito or Jupiter could become the go-to tokens representing Solana DeFi, attracting aĀ broad base of investorsĀ eager to be part of Solana's success story.Ā
Ethena might gain recognition as a top-tier, chain-agnostic yield strategy, poised for substantial growthāmaking it aĀ must-haveĀ for those seeking reliable returns.Ā
On the other hand, some projects could rise to prominence through their ability toĀ generate substantial cash flowsĀ and exhibit strong growth potential.Ā
These projects, backed by solid revenue streams and scalable business models, could appeal to investors focused onĀ financial performanceĀ rather than narrative hype.Ā
While we may not know the exact factors that will drive each of our tokens to success, weāre confident that they have a strong chance ofĀ reaching their projected targetsāeven if the valuations sometimes seem overinflated or donāt fully add up.Ā
Whether itās fueled by market sentiment, a compelling narrative, or an unexpected catalyst, the potential for each token to hit its targetĀ remains real.Ā
In the unpredictable world of crypto,Ā logic doesnāt always dictate outcomes, but thatās part of what makes the market so dynamic and full of opportunity.
Alright, that's a wrap for today!Ā
We hope these updates have provided you with valuable insights and a clearer understanding of our holdingsāmaybe even yours too.Ā š¤
Take care and good luck!
ACTION STEPS FOR PRO MEMBERSĀ š„Ā
Join the private PRO community now!
This is your all-access hub for engaging directly with the Milk Road PRO research crew and fellow PRO members, diving into live AMA sessions, digital events, and daily robust discussions on market trends, fundamentals, and industry insights.
šØĀ Important:Ā Upon joining the Discord, youāll be asked to fill out a form. Please, please pay attention to 2 things:
-
Enter the exact email address you used to sign up to PRO with.
-
Enter your exact Discord username. To find your Discord username, click on your profile picture in Discord. Your username is the smaller text name under your profile picture.
Do this with bomb-defusing precisionāa single typo might lock you out!Ā š¬
Join the PRO Discord Community Here
See you on the inside!Ā š„
Start the Crypto Investing Masterclass (50% off just for you)
If you want to supercharge your portfolio and capture a piece of crypto's growth to a $100T market cap, then you need to understand these 4 basic concepts:
-
The fundamentals of crypto cycles
-
Liquidity flow in crypto
-
How to pick the right coins for your strategy
-
Building a portfolio that outsmarts 99% of crypto investors
You can learn all of the above (and more) inside the Milk ManāsĀ Crypto Investing MasterclassĀ āĀ your ultimate cheat code to become a successful crypto investor.
This masterclass lays the foundation of investing in crypto, so you can maximize the value of the Milk Road PRO reports andĀ build a portfolio that brings you generational wealth by the end of the next bull cycle.
The best part? Milk Road PRO members like youĀ š«µĀ get aĀ 50% discount for lifetime.Ā š„³